Last Updated on March 26, 2020 by Patricia Carter
Summary: This post is a repository of COVID19 Projections I am following as I try to make sense of COVID19 prevalence, transmissibility, and the high risk groups for severe illness. It shares expert discussion concerning the UK, and if they’ve actually entered into “herd immunity” phase which means the spread of COVID19 should decrease there because so many have been infected. To confirm this, the UK is beginning this week with serum antibody testing to better learn if they’ve in fact entered into “herd immunity”. I am no expert, but these projections are forefront and heavily influence my thoughts. This post also introduces you to the UK Covidradar tracking app soon to be accessible in the U.S. by the end of this week according lead researcher Tim Spector. With this app, you self-report daily (even if you’re well) to help inform healthcare system and policy makers where the virus is spreading supporting COVID Projections. Last, this post begins the conversation of seasonality of COVID19 and what you can do in your home and workplace to lower risk of respiratory infection (spoiler alert –> relative humidity matters). Follow along and comment with related information you find insightful. I’ll update this post or add comments of related important information as well. All the links below have been opened for public access, but if you can’t direct access the articles, msg me for hardcopy. Stay Home and Stay Well guys! XOXO
This Financial Times COVID Projection information posted yesterday (March 24, 2020), and its approach has weighed heavily on my mind for over a month. I am glad to see it being talked about by people a lot smarter than me. The first recorded COVID19 infection was at the end of February. However, UK modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group finds that COVID19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. That means that perhaps half the UK population has already been infected. This projection however still needs confirmed with large-scale serological survey (aka antibody) testing in order to confirm how many are already infected and better identify what stage of transmission the UK is in. Antibody testing on the general UK population is thought to begin later this week and preliminary results should become available within a few days.
The importance of the Oxford results is that it suggests that the UK may have already acquired what is called “herd immunity”. The spread of COVID19 by asymptomatic carriers over two months means that the virus has infected enough people who have developed antibodies to it, that further spread of the virus will slow down since this cohort will become resistant to it. This is called “herd immunity” which was the original public health approach UK took. Then they changed policy and moved to shut down mode.
Their finding will help answer the nagging question you have: Was the respiratory infection you already had really COVID19?
Stay at Home Mandates. This doesn’t mean to say that the stay at home mandates are not important. That is because social distancing will reduce transmission, and there are incredibly vulnerable populations at risk for severe disease. The healthcare workers and facility infrastructure can not become overwhelmed with a large volume caseload. People needing ventilated are on machines for 5 to 6 weeks. Slowing down the transmission to those most vulnerable will spread out severe disease that needs the healthcare system response. You’ve heard this mentioned early in the pandemic; it is called “flatten the curve.”
These charts from Financial Times, Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads | Free to read, https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest show that the California and Washington state infections appear to be flattening out. The NY infections are still increasing steeply. This is important data for those involved with COVID19 projections.
Human antibody sustainability of COVID19 infection acquired antibodies are UNKNOWN at this time. The Stay Home mandates are also important since they’ll buy time for researchers to answer important questions about COVID19. One on the table is understanding the strength and length of human immune response to COVID19 if you already have antibody loads. In other words, if COVID19 infections slow with warmer temperatures, but ramps up with cooler fall temperatures (aka seasonality of infection), will enough people be protected with antibody loads to not ramp up infection and continue the pandemic? This info is needed for COVID19 projections. This is addressed a bit more below!
The UK Covidradar app can be downloaded, and it will track COVID19 symptoms, sick or not. With this app, you self-report daily (even if you’re well) to help inform healthcare system and policy makers where the virus is spreading. This info will help make more solid COVID19 projections! The app was created with @kings_college_london@zoe to support the @nhswebsite, but the app will be used by other countries. U.S. access for data self reporting is nearing completion, and once I know when, so will you! The UK as of this morning, is just hours away from 1 million U.K. users actively logging symptoms. Please continue to log symptoms as they need millions of trackers! Note too, they are actively improving the app based on your feedback so share that with them! I hear your concerns with privacy issues. People, how else will we know, unless we know? That’ my attorney hat speaking. Just do it.
By submitting your symptoms daily, you can help identify:
✔️How fast the virus is spreading in your area
✔️Who is most at risk sooner, by sharing symptoms and simple health information
✔️Share this with friends and family – the more information we have, the better we can support the NHS and your own country response efforts.
For more, see https://www.instagram.com/tim.spector/ and https://covid.joinzoe.com/
Potential seasonality of COVID19 and 50% relative humidity may be optimal in your home and workplace to help protect against viral infections. I won’t go into detail about the seasonality of COVID19 but what this means is the concern that COVID19 transmission may slow down in warmer weather but ramp back up in the fall. For more detail on that read [Moriyama et al 2020] which posted March 20, 2020. These authors discuss indoor and outdoor climate and temperatures and how they are linked to seasonality of viral respiratory infections and human response. The LinkedIn experts I connect with are saying animal and human studies show that 50% (40-60%) relative humidity in our homes and workplace is optimal to maintain and protect our airways from viruses. Low humidity (20-35%) greatly increases rates of infection. A sampling of homes in NY and the Midwest in the winter found homes had about 24% relative humidity which is not ideal. If you want to connect with those having this discussion on LinkedIn, send me a connect request.
Well guys, that’s it for now. I hope this helps you better frame the COVID19 situation. Stay Home. Stay Well! Virtual XOXO to all!
References:
- UK Covidradar tracking app soon to be accessable in the U.S. With this app, you self-report daily (even if you’re well) to help inform healthcare system and policy makers where the virus is spreading. This app will be accessible in the U.S. by the end of this week according lead researcher Tim Spector.
- Financial Times, Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study, Clive Cookson, Science Editor, March 24, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b
- Roberts March 11, 2020, NY Times, Flattening the Coronavirus Curve, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/science/coronavirus-curve-mitigation-infection.html
- UK Covidradar, https://www.instagram.com/tim.spector/ and https://covid.joinzoe.com/
- [Moriyama et al 2020] Seasonality of Respiratory Viral Infections, https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-virology-012420-022445
